2021 set record for final-play victories

The 2021 NFL season has been like few others. If it seems like nearly every week a game is won on the final play, that is exactly what is happening. There have been 32 games — including two more this Sunday — featuring a game-winning score on the final play, which surpasses the 2012 season for the most in a season since the merger in 1970.

There have been 15 wins in overtime and everything else from NFL records to an absurd number of field goal misses that eventually led to a win. The Minnesota Vikings surprise few by being the team mentioned the most in the winning and losing columns combined — it’s kind of the theme to their season. And the Las Vegas Raiders have the most walk-off wins with five — the fifth coming in Sunday’s win over the Indianapolis Colts.

To find the most thrilling game of the season, we ranked all 32 of these games from most thrilling to least thrilling using the win probability of the final play — we call it the NFL Thrill Index. We also show what the win probability was on the start of the drive to provide greater context. Our NFL Nation reporters then recap the games because some wins are more wild than just the score lets on.

So let’s start with the most thrilling win — the Lions’ first win of the season:

Lions’ win probability before the final drive: 13.9%
Lions’ win probability before the walk-off play: 18.9%

What happened: The Lions’ first win of the season couldn’t have happened in more dramatic fashion, with quarterback Jared Goff finding rookie receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown for an 11-yard touchdown pass for the walk-off at Ford Field. Goff drove the Lions 75 yards on 14 plays in 1:50 of game time.

Detroit’s victory happened on the heels of a tragic shooting at nearby Oxford High School that same week that left four teenagers dead and several others with injuries. Coach Dan Campbell dedicated the win to the victims. “This game ball goes to the whole Oxford community and all those who were affected,” he said….