NFL Week 12 betting notes


Happy Thanksgiving to all. Thanksgiving brings a number of trends and traditions with the Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys playing on this day every season. Recently, the trends have been against the two hosts. Dallas is 1-10 ATS in its past 11 Thanksgiving games, while the Lions are 3-11 ATS and 0-14 outright the past 14 times they have been underdogs on Thanksgiving.

The Cowboys hope to continue a trend of big favorites covering on Thanksgiving. Since 1995, teams favored by at least 7 points are 22-5 ATS on Turkey Day.

The Los Angeles Rams (2-7-1 ATS) are off to the worst 10-game ATS start by a reigning Super Bowl champion since 1997. With Matthew Stafford officially ruled out, the Rams are the first reigning champions to be at least 14-point underdogs. Two prior reigning champions closed as 13.5-point underdogs. Both won outright.

While the Rams are rare underdogs, a couple of other teams are in new favorite roles. The Miami Dolphins are in their biggest favorite role since 2003, also against the Houston Texans. Miami, which lost back in 2003, hopes to avoid a loss on Sunday. Meanwhile, the New York Jets are in their largest favorite role since 2018 as they host the Chicago Bears.

Season notes

  • Home teams: 5-8-1 ATS (76-82-6 ATS this season)

  • Favorites: 7-6-1 ATS (68-87-6 ATS this season)

  • Favorites: have not had week over .500 this season

  • Overs: 8-6 (94-68-2 this season)

  • Best team ATS: Tennessee (8-2); eight straight covers

  • Worst team ATS: Los Angeles Rams (2-7-1)

  • Best over team: Cleveland (7-2-1)

Notable title odds moves

  • Dallas: 14-1 to 10-1

  • Cincinnati: 30-1 to 25-1

  • Tennessee: 35-1 to 28-1

  • Minnesota: 11-1 to 16-1

  • Los Angeles Chargers: 35-1 to 45-1

  • New York Giants: 60-1 to 80-1

  • New York Jets: 60-1 to 100-1

  • Green Bay: 80-1 to 125-1

  • Dan Campbell is 17-10 ATS as Detroit head coach, including 13-4 ATS as an underdog of at least four points and 7-0 ATS as a home underdog of at least four points (4-3…

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