Did Fernando Alonso and Aston Martin throw away a Monaco win?

MONACO — With the benefit of hindsight, Fernando Alonso had a clear shot at his 33rd Formula One victory at Sunday’s Monaco Grand Prix. Had Aston Martin fitted intermediate wet-weather tyres to his car on Lap 54 instead of slick medium-compound tyres, and had he then completed a clean outlap with Max Verstappen pitting on Lap 55 (as he did in reality), Alonso would have emerged in the lead with 23 laps to run.

Arguably, given the changing track conditions, it’s impossible to say what would have happened from Lap 54 onwards. But when you add up how much time Verstappen lost by staying out until the end of Lap 55 on slick tyres, and how much Alonso had to gain by switching to intermediates on Lap 54, it’s also a fair assumption that the Aston Martin driver would have taken the lead.

In reality, Aston Martin realised its tyre choice mistake a lap later, called Alonso back into the pits on Lap 55 and he emerged still in second place but 22 seconds behind Verstappen — a gap that only grew over the remaining laps.

What do the lap times tell us?

When Alonso pitted on Lap 54, his gap to Verstappen in the lead was under nine seconds. Alonso’s in-lap on Lap 54 was 20 seconds faster than Verstappen’s in-lap on Lap 55, suggesting he would have made up more than the nine seconds he needed had Aston Martin fitted intermediate tyres on Lap 54 and not needed to make a second pit stop on Lap 55.

Esteban Ocon, who finished third, offers a useful comparison as he did switch to intermediates on Lap 54, and took 15 seconds out of the Red Bull’s lead as a result. It’s true that Ocon was 30 seconds further behind Alonso in the race when he stopped on Lap 54, meaning Alpine had more time to assess the changing track conditions as they got worse, but it still…