College football betting: How to bet Miami-Florida State

There’s a storm brewing in Tallahassee, and it’s more than just the weather forecast.

Miami has been bulldozing opponents in the comfort of its own backyard, but now the Hurricanes pack their bags for their first real test — a trip to Florida State, where chaos lives under center and the stakes stretch beyond just bragging rights.

One team thrives on pressure, while the other thrives in it. Something’s got to give, and what happens Saturday could reshape the entire ACC title race.

All odds by ESPN BET

No. 3 Miami Hurricanes at No. 18 Florida State Seminoles
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC

Line: Miami -4.5
Money line: Miami (-190), Florida State (+160)
Over/Under: 53.5 (O -115, U -105)

Betting trends

Courtesy of ESPN Research

• Miami is 7-9 ATS on the road under Mario Cristobal (since 2022). The over has hit in 10 of those 16 games.

• Miami is 1-3 ATS on the road against ranked opponents under Cristobal, though its lone cover in that span came against No. 4 Florida State in 2023 (lost game 27-20 as a 15.5-point underdog).

• Miami’s games have gone over the total in 12 of 17 games since last season (2-2 this season). The over has hit in five of their six road games in that span.

• Carson Beck’s teams are 10-4 ATS against ranked opponents (2-0 at Miami, 8-4 at Georgia).

• This is the first time since 2016 that a ranked Florida State team has been a home underdog (lost by 3 vs. Clemson as 4-point home underdogs). The last time Florida State was an underdog of 4.5 or more points as a ranked team at home was in 2008 against Tim Tebow’s No. 2 Florida (lost 45-15 as a 16.5-point underdog).

• Overs have hit in eight of Florida State’s 12 home games as a ranked team under Mike Norvell (since 2020).

• Florida State’s games have gone over the total in seven of nine games against top-10 opponents under Norvell.

Miami’s formula: pressure + power + control = a 4-0 start

Miami’s formula this season has been pretty…