What history tells us about the eighth-best odds in the NHL Draft Lott…
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History of the 8th-best odds in the NHL Draft Lottery originally appeared on NBC Sports Washington
For the NHL teams who saw their 2022-23 seasons come to an end after the regular season, their next order of business is typically the draft lottery.
The Washington Capitals, who missed the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the first time in eight seasons after finishing with a 35-37-10 record, find themselves in somewhat unfamiliar territory. The Capitals will be taking part in this year’s NHL Draft Lottery for the first time in nearly a decade (2014).
The Capitals finished with a nearly identical record to the Detroit Red Wings to end the regular season. However, the Capitals were awarded one percentage point higher since the Red Wings’ 28 regulation wins outnumbered the Capitals’ 27 regulation wins. This awarded the Capitals the tiebreaker and better lottery odds. The Capitals sit behind the Philadelphia Flyers (6.5%) in the lottery who finished their season with a 31-38-13 record.
The Capitals currently have the eight-best odds (6.0%) at landing the No. 1 overall pick, where Canadian phenomenon, Connor Bedard is widely expected to be selected first. With the eighth-best odds, Washington has a 54.4% chance at staying put, but could also find themselves ending up with a first-round pick outside of the top eight.
If you look back at the history of the NHL draft lottery, you’ll find that the Capitals’ chances of landing the No. 1 pick are not completely unrealistic. However, they will certainly need some luck from the lottery gods, and perhaps Lord Stanley himself.
Beginning in 2022, the NHL changed its lottery system allowing teams to move up as many as 10 spots, thus only 11 of the 16 teams who missed the playoffs would have a chance at the No. 1 overall pick. The NHL also made it so a team could only win the draft lottery a maximum of two times in a five-year span.
Although having the eighth-best odds is not a great place to be if you want to move into the top five, here…
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