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Nick Saban may only stand 5-foot-6 but he intimidates nearly everyone. That includes the betting public, even when they have every reason to fade him.
Bettors without hesitation paraded to the window last weekend to lay 24 points, even though Bama was expected to miss its starting quarterback and reigning Heisman Trophy winner. The Crimson Tide prevented a Texas A&M touchdown on the final play to avoid an outright loss.
Oh how things have changed. No. 3 Alabama (-8.5) visits No. 6 Tennessee with similar QB uncertainty and all of a sudden bettors are no longer afraid to fade. “The public always bets what they last saw,” SuperBook executive director John Murray told ESPN. Currently there’s about a 75% consensus ticket count for UT at all sportsbooks. However, they mostly grabbed a bad number, since the line moved on Friday (-7 to -8) based on growing speculation that Young will return.
It makes sense why Saban is typically backed by the public. Since coming to Alabama, he is 116-90-5 ATS (56%). Plus, against top-10 opponents, he also takes care of business: 26-21-1 ATS. “It’s too late to get rich betting on Saban but you’re definitely not going to get rich betting against him. I’d be careful,” South Point casino sportsbook director Chris Andrews told ESPN.
Alabama is not just getting by on brand name, but it’s also not the same juggernaut we saw under Tua Tagovailoa and Mac Jones. Four of Bryce Young’s six road starts have been decided by three points or less. That includes a Sept. 10 comeback win at Texas with a game-winning field goal in the final seconds.
“There’s something that’s not right with them this year but this also won’t be the same team that sleepwalked against Texas,” SuperBook oddsmaker Ed Salmons told ESPN. “Bama usually thrives when they are being challenged or overlooked.”
Personally, this current stretch of road struggles matter much more to me than Saban’s 15 straight wins over Tennessee. That’s ancient history, since players and coaches turn over….
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Source : espn
