Fantasy basketball – Mobley, Cunningham, Barnes and an NBA rookie class to be thankful for

How over the river and through the woods am I for this season’s rookie class?

I just turned down Deandre Ayton for Evan Mobley. Straight up. Not only was my response an instant “no,” but I felt a pang of indignation at being lowballed.

Said pang is surfacing just 15 games into Mobley’s career.

At the dawn of every draft season, I warn readers not to fall into Rookie Love.

Rookie Love, defined: irrational hype-driven anxiety and ardor that drives managers to waste a mid-round pick on someone whose NBA resume consists of putting on a hat on draft night, one Summer League and a few preseason games.

Oh, I’ve been there. Rookie Love sweeps you up with hype. Hope. Then the honeymoon period; that halcyon inaugural draft season where every lottery pick’s fantasy career seems to lack any semblance of a ceiling.

At that juncture? A fourth or fifth-round pick for a highly anticipated rookie smacks of a steal.

But then Halloween arrives. The games start to count. Veterans expose flaws. That missing ceiling is exposed.

And finally… the check arrives.

You examine the chasm between ADP and Player Rater ranking. Find out you’ve overpaid by three or four rounds… all for a single burst of draft-night dopamine.

My customary advice: during your draft, look to acquire rookies as endgame fliers. Nothing more. Once the season begins? Have at it. Rookies make the best in-season waiver wire additions.

The sudden leaps a rookie can take in their season-one development are unrivaled regarding waiver-wire impact. That undefined ceiling, the sheer unknown surrounding a rookie’s upside, is a singular fantasy dynamic… but one best explored on the wire.

(Unless you’re in a keeper league. If you’re in a salary cap keeper league, rookies are a different ballgame. In that format, overpaying a little for one rookie makes good longterm sense.)

Oh and by the way — everything you just read does not apply to the 2021-22 season!

This rookie class is an exception. It is exceptional. Uniquely productive…