Every NFL team’s record vs. the spread and Week 7 early lines

At a glance, Week 7 appears to be one of mismatches, as nine of the 14 games (64.3%) posted an opening line north of five points. That’s a big number, but with how bad the bottom rung of NFL teams is, your gut reaction may be to back the favorites.

Be careful. Very careful.

It’s been no secret that underdogs have been profitable on the whole this season, but with a week like the one we have coming, it’s important to add context. The cover (and outright win) rates for underdogs of five or fewer points this season essentially matchup with the rates from 2016-21, but once you cross that 5-point spread, the dogs are barkin’. This season, when that is the case, underdogs are covering at a 63.2% clip, winning outright 35.5% of the time.

How does that stack up with the past? From 2016-21, underdogs covered 49.4% of the time and pulled off the outright upset just 20.9% of the time. Sure, six weeks does not a season make, but what we’ve seen up to this point is overwhelming … do you think it continues? Let me know, and here are the league wide trends and a note to consider for every team as we head into Week 7:

Thursday, 8:15 p.m.

Saints ATS: 2-4
O/U: 4-2
What we know about the Saints: Over the past three weeks, New Orleans games have seen 50 more points scored than projected (first three weeks: nine fewer points).

Cardinals ATS: 3-3
O/U: 1-4-1
What we know about the Cardinals: The over hit in Week 1 but hasn’t cashed since in Arizona games. IN fact, over the past two weeks, Cardinals games have gone under the projection by 34 points.

play

Joe Fortenbaugh breaks down why he’s taking the under in Saints vs. Cardinals.

Sunday, 1 p.m.

Falcons ATS: 6-0
O/U: 3-3
What we know about the Falcons: The Falcons are just the third team since 2010 to open the…