GSAA makes a case the Penguins need a change in net

Allowing too many goals has been a major problem for the Penguins. As recently as March 3rd, the team was sitting sixth in the NHL with 2.78 goals against per game. In the last 11 games since then, that’s gone out the window – the Pens sit 31st over the last three weeks with an average of 4.17 goals allowed per game. six times giving up six or more goals. Take out the 7-2 win over Colorado and the average balloons up to 4.80 over the rest of the games.

Prevention has been ugly from team defense slipping down to the performance of the goalies. HockeyStats.com has a cool new tracker of Goals Saved Above Expected, which has taken a big hit lately, especially for Arturs Silovs.

After a 5-0 shutout win against Vegas back on March 1st, Silovs’s GSAA crested at +5.45. After allowing five goals last night against Colorado, Silovs is down to -1.85 GSAA. Silovs spent a good portion of the season through much of December and all over Janaury underwater in the GSAA category before a strong February. Since then, it’s been a downward trend capped by the disastrous -3.38 GSAA performance last night when Colorado teed off on him.

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Stuart Skinner has performed better on this metric, but his numbers have gone down too – peaking at +10.13 GSAA after the January 25th 3-2 win over Vancouver and now sitting at +8.55 for the season. Skinner’s season sample includes the +3.72 GSAA from his time at the beginning of the year with Edmonton so overall he’s at +4.83 GSAA while playing for the Penguins.

The question now shifts to the tolerance of the coaching and management for these performances, especially when it comes to Silovs. Silovs has given up four or more goals in five of his last six starts. So far, that hasn’t been an issue – the team has stayed committed to an even rotation of goalies every other game. Skinner has only started two consecutive games once with Pittsburgh, a stretch from Jan 17-19, otherwise the two netminders have evenly split starts one…