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Josh Allen didn’t throw a pick, but he was outproduced by Jared Goff, so I’ll take that as a win. Meanwhile, D’Andre Swift’s load was managed and Jeff Wilson exited with an injury. But Adam Thielen stayed busy, Isiah Pacheco remained extra and Tyler Boyd stayed quiet (before also leaving early).
Ultimately, four of my seven picks hit, making for a solid weekend. Let’s push for perfection this go-around. Utilizing ESPN’s metrics database and some assistance from stats ace Kyle Soppe, I’m here to help you secure the bag in fantasy and at the books.
Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5, 47.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis
Pick: Michael Pittman OVER 69.5 receiving yards (-123)
The Pittman breakout has been put on pause for another year. That doesn’t mean, however, he can’t muster a top-15 finish in the first week of the fantasy playoffs. Just one game removed from an 11-target effort, Pittman figures to thrive as a ball hog again in Minneapolis.
The Vikings’ secondary has been a gift to opposing pass-catchers, allowing contending wideouts to clear 80 yards on 12 separate occasions so far this year. That list of receivers includes everyone from Gabe Davis and DeVonta Smith to Corey Davis and DeVante Parker.
Pittman’s aDOT is down 26.5% this season from last (thanks, Matt Ryan), but as evidenced by the diversity of skill set and situation represented in the aforementioned catalog of WRs, the Vikings can be had through a variety of ways and means. For Pittman’s purposes, Minnesota allowed the third-most yards per pass to wideouts on passes under 10 yards (6.6).
Pittman won’t clear the above line on three catches, but he could do it on six. With Indy expected to be chasing points and given that Pittman is averaging nine looks per contest (WR11), a 6-72-1 stat line is well within reason.
Philadelphia Eagles (-9, 48.5) at Chicago Bears
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Soldier Field, Chicago
Pick: Miles Sanders OVER 68.5 rushing…
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