Tom Brady on top; Josh Allen still worth a buy

As the calendar turns to December, the NFL MVP race is usually trimmed to a couple top candidates. Last year, it was Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers separating themselves from the pack. However, this year’s race still feels extremely wide open with a different candidate each week seemingly taking over the role of betting favorite. So how much more shifting will we see between now and the playoffs? It’s time to buy and sell the main candidates.

MVP watch

Tom Brady (+275)

Brady is understandably the favorite, but this is far from a runaway. He leads the NFL with 30 passing touchdowns and is just 11 passing yards behind that category’s leader. He has been so solid, and with an 8-3 record Tampa Bay is contending for the NFC’s top seed. Also, the Bucs have five of their final six games against teams currently with losing records. The other is a home showdown with the Bills, and perhaps that will determine the MVP. I do think Brady is likely to win this award, but I do not recommend a wager at +275.

Aaron Rodgers (+550)

Finally we are seeing the betting market respond to the reigning MVP and even Green Bay in the futures market. It has been slow to react, but a convincing win over the Rams now has the Pack drawing some buzz. Green Bay is 9-3, and if 9-2 Arizona slips up, the Pack could land the one-seed, given their win over the Cardinals. I expect the Packers to win out, but I wouldn’t be shocked with losses at Baltimore, home to Cleveland or home to Minnesota. Given his offseason hoopla and the COVID-19 misrepresentation, Rodgers will probably lose some key votes. I am selling this because voters will find another elite QB.

Josh Allen (+550)

I think this is a live ticket. Allen and the Bills host the NFL’s hottest team on Monday Night Football next week, and I think it’s a good spot for Buffalo to win and cover. Allen then travels to Tampa Bay for an MVP…