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Despite my worst showing of the season in Week 18, this column is getting extended throughout the postseason. Thank you to everyone for reading each week and engaging on social. I’m looking forward to a few more weeks of popping these props with y’all.
As of right now, I’ve hit on 49 of 94 props. Thanks to an intense Virgo Moon placement, I’m more than motivated to hit a winning percentage above 55. That starts now! Utilizing ESPN’s metrics database and some assistance from stats ace Kyle Soppe, we’re kicking off the New Year with some extra spending money.
Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5, 47.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET, TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, Fla.
Pick: Austin Ekeler OVER 51.5 rushing yards (-119)
Fantasy’s RB1 overall, the bulk of Ekeler’s FF production has come via the air. But let’s not pretend he hasn’t been a star on the ground. Averaging 53.8 rushing yards per contest (which is 2.3 yards more than the above line), Ek’s legs have accounted for 66.5% of the Chargers’ total rushing yards. Per that math, the Bolts would need to run for 78 yards in order for Austin to hit the over. Meanwhile, Jacksonville allowed 83.2 rushing yards to opposing RBs over the regular season.
With a spread of just 1.5 points, a close game is expected. That doesn’t mean, though, that Los Angeles can’t or won’t establish the run. Not when the team’s RB1 is averaging 4.89 YPC in the first half of contests (ahead of Nick Chubb and Derrick Henry) since the beginning of 2021. Leaning on Austin early is critical to the Chargers’ game plan. And with a surplus of field stretchers and aerial weapons, he can be that more efficient. In fact, Ek has faced a stacked front on just 6.9% (RB47) of his carries while running against a light front on 64.7% (RB6) of his carries.
The Chargers’ run-blocking efficiency has improved over the course of the season, earning a top-three score for this weekend’s matchup. While the Jaguars have thrived as a…
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