Liverpool should extend Mohamed Salah’s contract… though not at all costs

Early last week saw the football cycle dominated by Mohamed Salah’s contract and news that his advisor, Ramy Abbas Issa, was looking for a hefty bump to his client’s wages. Given his contract expires in 2023 — which means that he can sign with anyone as a free agent in 14 months’ time — and given the fact that Salah’s own boss, Jurgen Klopp, suggested he was the best player in the world (“Who is better than him?”) following his remarkable hat-trick in Liverpool’s 5-0 win at Manchester United, you would imagine Salah is in a pretty strong position.

He’s playing some of the best football of his career (15 goals in 12 appearances this season tell their own story) and his situation is a fascinating one, mixing elements of age, longevity, opportunity-cost, the global pandemic, macroeconomics and a perhaps unprecedented contractual and demographic cliff edge — Salah’s fellow forwards Sadio Mane and Roberto Fimino are the same age and also go out of contract in 2023 — that looks distinctly counter-intuitive. Played correctly, this might even work in Liverpool’s favor.

Let’s start with the obvious, which is also the unsurprising takeaway of this column (in case you’re in a rush): Liverpool should extend Salah’s contract, but not at any price and not under every circumstance. So let’s look at the factors Liverpool are likely to be considering.

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First, there’s age and longevity. Salah will have just turned 31 when his existing deal expires. You would assume he’d be looking for a three-year deal (at least), and then the argument becomes whether Liverpool believe he can provide a level of performance through the eve of his 34th birthday to justify a substantial increase in salary. Remember, when giving out contracts, you don’t pay for what somebody has achieved; you pay for what you think they will offer.

The biggest concerns once players…