Seven prop bets to like – AFC East, NFC South edition

Player props are rolling in for the 2023 NFL season and I’ve been comparing them – as well as team win totals – to my projections in order to find the best values on the board.

The below plays are my favorites from the AFC East and NFC South divisions.

All lines are via Caesars Sportsbook

Josh Allen UNDER 4,300.5 pass yards

Projection: 4,163

Allen cleared this mark in both 2020 and 2021, but didn’t miss a single game. Had he missed even one (and using his weekly average as a benchmark), he would’ve fallen short of 4,301 pass yards. In 2022, Allen did miss one game (postponed vs. Cincinnati) and fell short of this line. Obviously Allen has been durable and the one missed game wasn’t on him, but if you make this bet, you’re essentially assuming a 17-game season. That’s a hard bet to recommend considering only eight QBs played 17 games in 2022 and 11 did in 2021. Props are often about playing the odds and the odds certainly favor the under here.

Tua Tagovailoa OVER 3,800.5 pass yards

Projection: 3,878 (15 games)

Tagovailoa’s concussion issues are a concern, so I understand if you want to stay away from this one. However, check this out: if we look at Tagovailoa’s 12 full games last season, his 17-game pace was 4,870 yards. That’s over 1,000 yards above this prop! Not enough of a sample? Fair. During his 11 full games in 2021, his 17-game pace was 3,836 yards, which is also above this line. Tagovailoa finished third in average depth of throw, second in QBR and first in yards per pass attempt last season. Even with a 15-game projection and worse efficiency, Tagovailoa projects above this prop line.

Dolphins OVER…