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It has been about four months since Jannik Sinner and Aryna Sabalenka polished off their US Open titles in comfortable fashion. Sinner dropped only two of 23 sets, while Sabalenka dropped only one of 15, and both won their second Slam titles of 2024 on their way to year-end No. 1 rankings.
After a relatively turbulent fall and winter, complete with injuries and further grumbling about overloaded tour schedules, plus the fallout from a couple of prominent positive drug tests (on both the men’s and women’s sides), the first Slam of 2025 arrives. It is in no way shocking to report that the favorites are again Sinner and Sabalenka. But a lot can go awry over a fortnight. Let’s look at the main cast of characters for the 2025 Australian Open, from the favorites and vice-favorites to the underdogs and the most likely first-week stories.
The favorites
Jannik Sinner
ESPN BET odds: +130 | Tennis Abstract odds: 65.9%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 8 Alex De Minaur (quarterfinals)
Despite the dark cloud of a no-fault drug test (and all it revealed about tennis’ strangely secretive drug-testing processes), Sinner enjoyed an incredible 2024, not only winning both hard-court Slams but also taking the year-end ATP finals, three Masters 1000 events and even leading Italy to the Davis Cup title. He went 0-3 against Carlos Alcaraz and 73-3 against the rest of the world. His serve has turned into the most dangerous in the world — he won 71.1% of his service points in 2024, the most of anyone in the ATP top 50 — and he’s got a top-five return, too.
Previous fitness concerns washed away to a degree in 2024, and what was left was the most complete and devastating overall game in tennis. Tennis Abstract gives him a 66% chance at the title, which is an absolutely absurd number considering the size of the 128-man field.
Aryna Sabalenka
ESPN BET odds:…
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