NFL Week 16 betting tips

Michael Pittman Jr. caught 10 balls but managed only 60 yards (*puke emoji*), which was the most stinging UNDER of the season for me. Elsewhere, game flow didn’t go D’Onta Foreman’s way, and Miles Sanders cooled off in the Windy City. On the bright side, Travis Etienne Jr. bounced back and Drake London continued to sky.

Ultimately, two of my five picks hit. I’m motivated to improve on those results this go-around. Utilizing ESPN’s metrics database and some assistance from stats ace Kyle Soppe, I’m here to help you secure the bag in fantasy and at the books.

New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-4, 48)
Saturday, 1 p.m. ET, U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis

Pick: Daniel Jones OVER 221.5 passing yards (-145)

The QB position has been an unexpected season-long headache for fantasy players. Injuries to star signal-callers Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson and unpredictable weather are forcing managers to consider other options in the second week of the fantasy football playoffs. The stakes are undeniably high. Thankfully, Daniel Jones draws an indoor matchup against a generous pass defense.

Minnesota has given up 205 passing yards to an opposing quarterback 11 times this season. Admittedly, the Vikings held Matt Ryan to under 200 passing yards in a scratching affair last weekend. But Mac Jones (382), Mike White (369) and Jared Goff (330) all went off for over 300 passing yards in the three games prior to Week 15.

Additionally, the Vikings are allowing 7.9 yards per attempt (second most). That means Jones would need to throw the ball only 28 times to clear the above line. As it turns out, he has recorded at least 27 pass attempts in 12 of 14 games this season. Danny Dimes — like a lot of QBs — gets flustered under pressure. Interestingly, he gains nearly 38% more yards per pass when not pressured. That sets up nicely against a Vikings squad that creates pressure at the fourth-lowest rate.

Jones’ ceiling is partially capped due to the dearth of…