NBA Summer Forecast 2025-26: Who could exceed, fall short of
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ESPN released its NBA Summer Forecast this week, breaking down everything that could happen across the league, from awards ballots, to championship predictions, to turmoil and turnarounds across the league.
Our staff voted on where all 30 NBA teams could land in the end-of-season standings, a snapshot of how the Eastern and Western Conferences might shake out. However, a consensus view isn’t necessarily the correct one. (Case in point, our awards forecast for 2024-25 went 0-for-6.)
With that in mind, here’s a look at five teams that could exceed their forecast win totals for this season, as well as five that could fall short of the mark next spring.
Five to exceed expectations
Oklahoma City Thunder
Forecast: 64-18
Last season, Oklahoma City became just the 22nd team in league history to win at least 65 games. Of those, only two franchises have gone on to match or surpass that total the following season: the 1995-96 and 1996-97 Chicago Bulls (72 and 69 wins, respectively) and the 2014-15, 2015-16 and 2016-17 Golden State Warriors (67, 73 and 67 wins, respectively).
The other teams to win at least 65 games in a season saw their win total drop by an average of more than seven games the following year. Only once (the Warriors in 2015-16) did a team either meet or improve on its win total from the season before.
Why could the defending champs buck this trend? It’s the combination of an even weaker Eastern Conference following star injuries in Indiana and Boston (the Thunder went 29-1 against the conference last season), a fully returning roster that should continue improving, and more time on the court for Chet Holmgren and Isaiah…
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