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While soccer has been on an international break — because what the sport needs during a crazy, congested schedule with the World Cup looming is Nations League matches — the last few weeks, Corner Picks was on its own brief hiatus.
I recently moved, which was planned and had been planned for a while. What wasn’t planned was the sewage backup into my basement following a big storm a few weeks ago. I tell you, if packing up and moving your entire life to a new location isn’t stressful enough, try doing it while dealing with an unexpected disaster in your current home simultaneously. On the bright side, I had less stuff to pack afterward! The water in my basement made some of the decisions of what to keep and get rid of a lot easier.
Anyway, that’s all behind me now. I’m in the new place, and Corner Picks is back this weekend and every foreseeable weekend. All odds are via Caesars Sportsbook.
Inter vs. Roma
Date: Saturday, Oct. 1 | Time: 12 p.m. ET | Watch: Paramount+
The stat nerd inside me awaits justice to prevail for Roma. Roma lead Serie A with an xG (expected goals) of 14.8 through seven games but has scored only eight, which ranks ninth in the league. Furthermore, the team’s xG of 0.13 per shot is also the best in the league. So, any way you look at it, Roma has been unlucky and should’ve scored more goals than they have at this point. The theory is that it should correct itself within time, but while I think that’s the case here, there’s another factor to consider. Tammy Abraham takes more shots than anybody on this team, and he’s consistently performed below his xG for his entire career. In NBA terms, he’s somewhat like Russell Westbrook in that he scores a lot of points, but he takes a lot of shots to get there.
Whether Roma’s luck balances out doesn’t matter for this match. I don’t expect it to correct itself against Inter because Roma have also been much better at home to…
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Source : cbssports
