NWSL final weekend analysis: Playoff race and predictions

The final round of regular-season games is upon the National Women’s Soccer League, and there is almost nothing set about the playoff picture. Some of the most ridiculous potential scenarios that were at least mathematically possible a week ago (a six-way tie for first?) can no longer happen, but much still needs to be decided in the league’s most competitive season yet.

Unfortunately, it will not play out in six simultaneous matches on a “Decision Day” like in MLS and most leagues around the world. Instead, the four-team fight for the final two playoff spots will be a three-day chess match in which the first move affects everything that follows.

Meanwhile, three teams — the Portland Thorns, OL Reign and the Kansas City Current — are still in the hunt for the NWSL Shield, awarded to the team that finishes the regular season on top of that table. The Shield comes with a $10,000-per player bonus, which is significant for a league with a $35,000 minimum salary.

Six of 12 teams in the decade-old league make the playoffs, with the top two earning byes to the semifinals. Seed No. 3 will host No. 6 and No. 4 will host No. 5 in the first round, which takes place on Oct. 16 after an international break. The semifinals are the following weekend, followed by the NWSL Championship on Oct. 29 at Audi Field in Washington, D.C.

Here’s a look at what’s at stake this weekend, day by day, as well as outcome predictions from FiveThirtyEight simulations.

Friday, Sept. 30

North Carolina Courage at San Diego Wave

San Diego’s scenario: Already clinched playoff berth; playing for positioning

North Carolina’s scenario: Will clinch playoff…