Mikel Arteta warns, ‘it’s not panic,’ but Arsenal can’t win the

After last season’s forest fire of a heater in front of goal, an icy wind is blowing in the penalty areas of the Emirates Stadium. A squad that in 2022-23 busted their non-penalty expected goals (npxG) across the board is now that most curious of things, a title contender that is underperforming against the value of their shots.

Thursday’s 2-0 defeat at West Ham was the nadir in a recent slide in front of goal, the kind of match that delivers the sort of records that Mikel Arteta can spin as “something positive.” At 77, Arsenal registered the most touches in the penalty area by any Premier League team not to score a goal since Opta began tracking that metric. In the Spaniard’s full seasons in charge, the most no-penalty xG Arsenal had registered in a top flight game without scoring before was 1.7. They obliterated that margin with 2.77. Ropey finishing at one end and weird errors at the other tend not to repeat themselves.

This defeat may have been an outlier but it is also a curious spike on a trend line that has been heading in the wrong direction for some time. In the seven league games since the November international break Arsenal have had shots worth 14.05 npxG, not to mention the…