What a 12-team College Football Playoff would look like midway through the 2021 season

It might not be here yet, but an expanded playoff looms over college football.

We’re checking in periodically with the Allstate Playoff Predictor’s projections for the latest proposal for a 12-team playoff to find out what the playoff would look like in 2021 if we had that format.

Who would it help? Who would it hurt? And how would the championship odds compare?

A refresher on that CFP proposal: a 12-team playoff, with a guaranteed bid for the six highest-ranked conference champions plus six at-large bids, with the four-highest ranking conference champions receiving a bye. To make these projections, we’re working under the assumption that the committee would rank teams using the same criteria it does today.

Let’s break down some storylines.

Huge boost for Big Ten

Four of the five teams that would see the biggest increase in their chance to reach the playoff are from the Big Ten: Iowa, Michigan State, Michigan and Ohio State would all see bumps of 43 percentage points or more in terms of playoff chances.

While the current format means that the Big Ten’s strength will end up cannibalizing itself to some degree, the larger field allows for that strength to be rewarded. All four of those teams individually would have a better than 50/50 shot at the playoff. And get this: there would be a 93% chance that the Big Ten would put three teams in the playoff in this format.

Ultimately the chance for the Big Ten to produce the…