Texans vs. Bears, top prospects

There’s just one more week to the 2022 NFL season, and two teams are still in the running for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 draft. Will it be the Houston Texans (2-13-1) or Chicago Bears (3-13) when the dust settles Sunday? And which top prospect might each team target as the first player off the board?

After a down year for quarterback prospects — there was just one selected in the first two rounds last April — there are at least three who could go first off the board this year. And beyond the signal-callers, there are multiple elite defenders who can stake a claim to being the best overall prospect in the class and potentially be the first player taken.

We pitched 10 questions to NFL draft analyst Jordan Reid, Texans reporter DJ Bien-Aime, Bears reporter Courtney Cronin and analytics writer Seth Walder to sort through how it could all play out April 27, including what to know about the race for No. 1 and which prospects could be the top selection. Be sure to check out Reid’s new Round 1 mock draft to see his projected picks for both teams. Let’s dig in.

Are the Texans or Bears more likely to claim the top pick?

Walder: The Texans. Houston having a slightly worse record going into the final week is a hefty advantage, but the race is closer than you might think because it plays the Colts. ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) is more confident in the Texans winning in Week 18 (66.7%) than it has been heading into any other Houston game this season. As a result, FPI makes it a narrow favorite — 55.7% to Chicago’s 44.3% — to earn the top pick.

Houston can clinch with either a loss or tie against Indianapolis or a Chicago win or tie against Minnesota. Chicago, meanwhile, needs a loss and Texans win to slide into the top spot. Houston has the tiebreaker in the unlikely event that both teams finish with the same winning percentage.

How’d the Texans end up here? And are they sure Davis Mills is not their guy at QB?

Bien-Aime: Houston has struggled across the board, with…