The Patriots’ one defensive flaw — and how the Titans can exploit it

If you’re an NFL team on the Patriots’ upcoming schedule, the object that’s much closer than it appears right now should be New England’s defense. As we head into the Sunday portion of Week 12, only the Bills rank higher in Defensive DVOA, only the Bills rank higher in DVOA against the pass, and as the Patriots rank eighth in DVOA against the run while the Bills rank 12th, there’s a reasonable case for the Pats to have at least a tie for the stranglehold on the title of NFL’s best defense.

The Patriots took that award home in 2019 with their man-heavy coverages, and then fell to 26th in 2020 as opt-outs and injuries took Bill Belichick’s defense to the woodshed. But now, that defense is the woodchipper once again. And this time, it’s not just about man coverage. In man this season, New England has allowed just 65 catches on 126 targets for 941 yards, four touchdowns, and six interceptions. But in zone, the Pats have given up 122 completions on 202 attempts for 1,322 yards, three touchdowns, and 10 interceptions.

No matter what you do, the Patriots seem to have a defensive answer. Their 28 sacks tied them with the Steelers for fifth in the league, and their 186 total pressures rank sixth. They don’t need to blitz to get home (they’ve brought the blitz on just 22.2% of their snaps), which obviously reinforces their coverage abilities, and if you want to run on this team… well, you can to a point, but getting in the end zone is a problem. New England has allowed 1,119 yards on 273 carries, but just four rushing touchdowns.

Into this woodchipper this Sunday walks Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who’s coming off a four-interception game against the Texans that marks a single-game career high in picks. As Tannehill will be without Derrick Henry, Julio Jones, and A.J. Brown, this game would seem to be a fait accompli.

It’s entirely reasonable to assume this, but the Titans, Tannehill, and offensive coordinator Todd Downing still have to show…