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Roman Dolidze meets Anthony Hernandez in a main event matchup of streaking middleweights at UFC Fight Night on Saturday at UFC Apex in Las Vegas (7 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+; prelims at 4 p.m.).
Dolidze (15-3), No. 10 in ESPN’s 185-pound rankings, has won three fights in a row, most recently a unanimous decision over Marvin Vettori in March.
Hernandez (14-2, 1 NC), who is unranked by ESPN but recently was in the top 10, is on a seven-fight winning streak. His latest victory was a unanimous decision over Brendan Allen in February. Prior to that, he had four straight finishes. Dolidze and Hernandez were booked to meet last year, but the fight was canceled after Hernandez injured his hand. ESPN MMA analyst Din Thomas provides his main event prediction, and ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds insight on the value bets available on the fight card.
Middleweight: Roman Dolidze vs. Anthony Hernandez
Prediction: Dolidze by submission.
I’m sticking to my underdog pick, even though I can’t trust Dolidze sometimes. He’s not always the most cerebral fighter, but I think he’s got the best guard in MMA. If he gets taken down, it’s not a big deal. He doesn’t even need to fight the takedown, because when he’s on the canvas, it only presents new problems for Hernandez. Dolidze’s guard is going to give Hernandez some problems. — Din Thomas
Betting analysis
Odds accurate as of Aug. 7. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET.
Parker: Hernandez to win (-350); over 2.5 rounds (+160). Riding an impressive win streak, Hernandez enters this match against Dolidze as the heavy favorite. If you like the price for Hernandez, make him the anchor in your parlay. Otherwise, take Hernandez to win and the over at 2.5 rounds. The price on this outcome will get the number down drastically. As good as Dolidze has been during his own win streak, I don’t know how he can win this fight. Unless he is able to knock out Hernandez early, I expect Hernandez to set a chaotic pace that will slow down Dolidze as the…
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