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It’s a dreary week for the College Football Playoff race. And it has us wondering: What if it were 2026 already?
Throughout the entirety of college football there is not a single game on this week’s slate in which both teams have at least one percentage point of playoff leverage, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. In other words: There’s no game where a win or loss matters for both teams in terms of the playoff race.
Would it be better with a 12-team playoff? Well, by that measure, yes. There would be eight games where both teams cleared the admittedly low bar of one percentage point of playoff leverage. With more playoff spots available, that was bound to increase. But it would also change the consequences of games across the board. So let’s take a look: What would be at stake in Week 4 in a 12-team world?
In our current state, Tennessee is a playoff contender with an outside shot and a 14% chance at earning a berth. That can increase to … 15% with a win. A loss drops them to 3%.
In a 12-team playoff? No team would have more playoff leverage at stake in Week 4 than the Vols. A win or a loss against Florida would equate the difference between a 72% chance at the 12-team playoff and a 39% chance. That’s huge!
Remember those eight games I mentioned where both teams would have at least one percentage point worth of playoff leverage? You’re looking at the first of them. Suddenly with a 12-team playoff, a team like 3-0 Maryland has a shot if everything breaks right. In this case, if the Terps were to walk out of Michigan Stadium with a win, they would be looking at an 11% chance at the playoff, per the Predictor. As opposed to under a 1% chance today.
Michigan would have multiple levels of leverage at stake: The Wolverines playoff chances would swing from 52% with a loss to 82% with a win. But Michigan will also have its eye on one of those byes if things go well the rest of the way. The Wolverines would be able to get up to a 19% chance of a bye with…
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Source : espn
