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NFL coaches make tough fourth-down and 2-point conversion decisions on every game day. Quantitative analysis can inform those decisions, both for those making calls on the sideline and fans evaluating their coach’s decision-making.
So what do analytics tell us about these choices? Well, it’s complicated. Is there a cheat sheet that could help show the correct decisions? No and yes.
There is not a simple answer because the permutations of game-management decisions in football are endless. That’s why it’s hard! In order to determine the correct decision on a fourth down, ESPN’s model — created by ESPN sports data scientist Brian Burke — accounts for score, time remaining in the game, distance to sticks, yardline, number of timeouts each team has remaining, each team’s chance to win entering the game and the relative strength of the offense and defense in question.
There are far too many possibilities to fit on a single chart to cover them all, but we can still provide a cheat sheet for the most likely scenarios. The following represents a guide to ESPN’s decision analysis recommendations based on typical situations. Those are when teams are still in the point maximization phase of the game. Think of it this way: A normal game in the first half or even early in the third quarter, where teams are within two scores of each other.
Note that in any specific game, ESPN’s recommendations might deviate from this chart even early because one team entered as a major underdog or there is a severe offense/defense mismatch between the two teams playing. Late in the game, the circumstances can cause recommendations that are significantly different, of course.
Jump to: 2-point conversion decisions
Fourth-down advice
Let’s start with what to do on fourth downs. The chart below details the recommended decision (go, field goal attempt or punt) in a typical situation given a specific yard line and distance to first down:
The first thing you might notice when looking at this chart is that…
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Source : espn
