Which South American giant will miss out on the World Cup?

South America’s World Cup qualification campaign is now in the home straight, and two of the riders have already crossed the line.

With four rounds still to play, Brazil and Argentina have both booked their place in Qatar — which is a partial explanation for the absence of Neymar and Lionel Messi from the squad lists for this penultimate double header.

Brazil were even thinking of playing the final rounds with an under-23 team while they fixed up friendlies against European opposition for the senior side. FIFA quite correctly knocked the idea back. There might be little riding on the last rounds for Brazil, but not for all the other teams battling for the two and a half slots (the team finishing fifth goes into a intercontinental playoff) still on offer from South America. Indeed, there is no such thing as an inconsequential match in this week’s set of fixtures. All five matches have a direct influence on who goes to Qatar and who stays home.

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Ecuador have solid grounds to believe that they will be in the former group. They lie third in the CONMEBOL table with a six-point cushion over the chasing pack and a massive advantage in goal difference. Barring a disaster and a mathematical miracle, they will go into the final two rounds still in third place.

Even so, there are concerns gnawing away at the Ecuadorian mind. They pick up most of their points at home,and their only remaining home games are against the big two — Argentina in March and Brazil this Thursday. And a surge in COVID-19 cases means that, barring a late change of mind, they will have no fans in the stadium in Quito roaring them on.

For Brazil coach Tite this is an evocative fixture. His first game in charge of the Selecao was a crunch qualifier in Quito almost five and a half years ago. Brazil were in dire trouble at the time, and struggled to hold the Ecuador attack. Well into the second half Tite would have been happy with a goalless draw….