Why bettors aren’t backing Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady have accounted for seven of the last 15 MVP awards but are leading the NFL’s two most underachieving teams. And the betting market is struggling to keep pace with the decline.

Rodgers is as a double-digit underdog for the first time in his career, as the Green Bay Packers visit the Buffalo Bills (-11) in primetime. Rodgers had won and covered 10 straight games following a loss, but Green Bay is currently riding a three-game skid and a -190 favorite to miss the playoffs.

“They have zero wide receivers and tight ends,” SuperBook head NFL oddsmaker and Las Vegas veteran Ed Salmons told ESPN, while also saying the point spread would be 6.5, if this matchup occurred a few weeks ago when Green Bay was 3-1. “Rodgers also has a bad thumb and it’s obvious he’s not throwing like he’s 100%.”

Professional bettors often back teams coming off a poor performance or two, hoping to seize value on a team that figures to rebound. However, they have not backed the Packers at Orchard Park, even though they did back Brady on Thursday. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers opened as home underdogs to the Baltimore Ravens but closed as favorites in a Baltimore win.

“Brady playing at home against a defense that’s been anything but stout is much different than Rodgers on the road against probably the best team,” professional bettor Jay Romano told ESPN. “They were completely different spots for two quarterbacks facing a pivotal week for their seasons, as well as possibly their careers.”

It’s difficult enough to wrap my head around these legendary quarterbacks combining for six straight losses. Any amount of denial points to how avoidable it all was. Green Bay and Tampa Bay each held halftime leads in two losses.

The NFL’s margin of error has always been narrow but it still feels like these guys are barely hanging on, so I am not rushing to the window to back them. I’m waiting to see flashes of their vintage selves before I believe they still have their magic.

The numbers you need…