The latest edition of Patrick Mahomes against Josh Allen will deliver perhaps the most hyped game of the entire regular season.
The two star quarterbacks sit atop the MVP betting board, and the same goes for their respective teams in Super Bowl futures. The winner will take a giant step towards strengthening its AFC championship path.
Bettors obviously are excited to watch but they are more focused on winning money. Mahomes is a home underdog for the first time in his career, and an extremely respected bettor wagered on the Chiefs +3 (-120) earlier this week. While I can understand that wager, for the life of me, I just cannot pick a side. Allen and Buffalo are just as potent.
The numbers you need to know
Personally, I believe the betting value lies with the total on over 54. Scoring is down this season but it really stems from issues only impacting about half the league. After 68% of unders cashed in the first two weeks, the betting market adjusted and now all totals skew lower than they normally would.
“There are a whole bunch of teams where their totals are so low. When they play each other, you have a total around 40 or less,” Super Book oddsmaker and Las Vegas veteran Ed Salmons told ESPN. “If you get away from that and get a high-low matchup, such as Seattle and Chicago, that’s where your totals are more variant.”
Building on that premise, when you get a matchup of two high-scoring teams like Buffalo and Kansas City, you can actually get line value on the over. If this exact matchup occurred last year, the total would be around 57.5. The Bills and Chiefs own the NFL’s two most efficient offenses, and these quarterbacks are as talented as we’ve ever seen.
Styles make fights. I certainly would not want to hold a ticket on the under.
The numbers you need to know, Part 2
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5, 45.5)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m ET, Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
The Eagles are such an interesting team to handicap, particularly if you like to attack the…
Source : espn
