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Week 7 will set the course for the rest of this year’s College Football Playoff race.
Several times in this space this year, I’ve lamented a particular week’s slate barely mattering to the CFP race, barring an implosion by a contender against a much weaker opponent. No one would make any such assertions about this week, where we have several games with two teams who could at least conceivably make a playoff run facing each other.
In fact, four of the 10 scheduled games with the highest impact on the CFP race this season are in Week 7, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor.
How do we measure impact? It’s based on a combination of both team’s playoff leverage and the likelihood of each side winning. This is important because if Alabama plays Rice in a given week, the Crimson Tide would have a huge amount of playoff leverage since the downside of a loss is so great. But the loss would also be extremely unlikely. Thus, the need for Playoff Impact, which takes that into account.
So let’s break down those four games and how their outcomes could shift the playoff race, per the Allstate Playoff Predictor.
Playoff Impact Game rank: 2
Alabama’s playoff chances with win: 88%
Alabama’s playoff chances with loss: 62%
Tennessee’s playoff chances with win: 48%
Tennessee’s playoff chances with loss: 12%
FPI and the Allstate Playoff Predictor have been on Tennessee for some time now, giving the Volunteers an 11% shot to reach the CFP all the way back in Week 3. Two wins over ranked SEC opponents later, and the Volunteers are real playoff contenders as they head into a critical matchup against the Crimson Tide.
Tennessee controls its own destiny, certainly. But the strength of its schedule — sixth-hardest overall — and quality (the Volunteers rank No. 7 in FPI) means it has wiggle room, too. If Tennessee beats Alabama on Saturday, it opens the door for the Volunteers to lose to Georgia later in the year, miss out on the SEC championship game and get in as an 11-1…
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Source : espn
