[ad_1]
Week 16 of the NFL season gives us a big slate of games on Saturday and a trio of matchups Christmas Day, including the Packers and Dolphins in Miami.
What is worth looking at from a betting perspective? And what are the best plays to help you make smart wagering decisions?
Betting analysts Doug Kezirian, Tyler Fulghum, Joe Fortenbaugh, Anita Marks and Erin Dolan, fantasy and sports betting analysts Eric Moody and Andre Snellings, ESPN Stats & Information’s Seth Walder and Football Outsiders’ Aaron Schatz offer their insights into the games with tips and picks.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise indicated.
Six NFL games Saturday have a projected wind chill of single digits or worse. And there are currently seven games with an over/under in the 30s, the most in a week since 2011. How do you approach handicapping with the cold weather and low totals?
Fulghum: I lean toward the under and the superior quarterback, especially when the temperature dips below 20 degrees Fahrenheit. That’s the threshold I use. For instance, I like the Bengals -3.5 and the under in their matchup at New England. This is not an end all be all — but that is generally where I start and then analyze if there is any data/trend/information that has me passing or moving to the other side.
Schatz: I put together my own methodology for predicting over/under totals this season, and it does account for both temperature (under freezing) and wind speed. Interestingly, it doesn’t have wind speed as significant until you get to 20 mph or higher. That’s the average wind expectation for only two games this weekend, New Orleans at Cleveland and Buffalo at Chicago. So my system favors going over the total a little bit on most of the cold-weather games this weekend. The big exception is Houston at Tennessee. Yes, the cold weather is going to get as south as Nashville, with a predicted high around 15 degrees Fahrenheit, and given the quality of the quarterbacks in this game (Davis Mills and Malik…
[ad_2]
